A Conceptual Model for Controlling Strategic Assumptions in Entrepreneurial Business Management: Integrating Change Analysis and Intelligent Strategic Orientation

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

This study addresses the emergent necessity for both theoretical and operational advancements in the effective management of strategic assumptions in entrepreneurial business management, particularly within the context of high-uncertainty environments in Iran. The primary objective of this study is to propose an integrated conceptual model grounded in a constructivist framework of grounded theory, which enhances the capability of organizations to identify, refine, and continually reassess strategic assumptions through a rigorous analysis of senior managers' practical and strategic experiences. Data collection was conducted through 14 semi-structured interviews with industry experts, from which a four-loop process model was derived utilizing continuous data analysis techniques. The identified loops consist of: (1) the identification and refinement of critical assumptions, in conjunction with the cultivation of environmental sensitivity; (2) the detection of weak signals and prioritization of changes employing a probability-effect matrix; (3) the development of periodic feedback mechanisms and interactive documentation to bolster continuous organizational learning; and (4) the formulation of multiple scenarios alongside the implementation of preventive measures and risk mitigation strategies. The findings suggest that the synergistic integration of these loops within a feedback framework significantly enhances the responsiveness of businesses to environmental changes, optimizes the allocation of limited resources, and fortifies their strategic resilience. However, a core challenge identified within prevalent models is the inadequate communication between the processes of scenario development and the review of strategic assumptions. To mitigate this challenge, the study advocates for the establishment of an early warning system designed for the ongoing monitoring of weak signals, the systematic utilization of the probability-effect matrix for change prioritization, regularized review meetings complemented by interactive documentation, and the development of multiple scenarios in conjunction with risk reduction programs. The proposed model not only presents a coherent theoretical framework but also affords practical tools and operational procedures for managers and consultants in entrepreneurial contexts. By implementing this model, organizations can enhance their strategic resilience and sustainability in the face of complex and dynamic conditions, thereby laying the groundwork for future empirical investigations.

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History

  • Receive Date: 29 April 2025
  • Revise Date: 10 May 2025
  • Accept Date: 16 May 2025

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