Idea selection in startups and its reflection in crossing the valley of death

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Department of New Business, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Innovative ideas are the source of life and success for startups. But not every seemingly good idea is necessarily a good business opportunity. To avoid costly mistakes, startups must be skilled in selecting ideas. On the other hand, innovative startups face a difficult challenge called the "valley of death" in the early stages of their growth, and most of them fail. Despite the importance of innovative startups in the progress of societies, so far, the impact of idea quality on how to pass through the valley of death, as one of the most important stages of startup growth, has received less attention. Accordingly, the present study was conducted with the aim of investigating idea selection in startups and its effects on passing through the valley of death. Given the exploratory nature of the subject, this study was applied from the perspective of the objective and in terms of qualitative data collection, with a multiple case study method, and based on data plurality among 6 successful and unsuccessful startups. After theoretical saturation, in order to homogenize the analyses and systematic comparisons, a combination of "Wagner's VoD Model" and "Apad's" time stages along with "idea quality" parameters was used. The research results identified 8 basic characteristics in the selected ideas for better crossing the Valley of Death. These characteristics include the short and low-cost research and prototyping phase of the idea, the idea's potential to attract governmental support, its attractiveness to investors, the startup team’s technical expert, the simplicity of legal issues, rapid market penetration, quick capital return, and the ability to reach market equilibrium. The results show that the more an idea covers a larger number of these features, the easier it will be for it to pass through the “valley of death.” Based on this, the present article presents a new criterion for evaluating startup ideas based on the maximum probability of success.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Education and Management of Entrepreneurship

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 29 March 2026

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History

  • Receive Date: 06 November 2025
  • Revise Date: 29 March 2026
  • Accept Date: 29 March 2026

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